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StewartJ

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Could Tropical Storm Alex hit Houston, like are we safe or is it still something to watch?

Like I saw most of the "computer models" (i guess they are called) are bringing the storm over Mexico. Earlier today and yesterday they were bringing it over the Texas area, but now there aren't any models I saw bringing it over Texas, so are we in the clear? What percentage do you think the storm has of making landfall over the Galveston/Houston area?

Thanks!

588 day(s) ago

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JasonS 		Stay abreast of all tropical activity by following frequent updates provided free at the National Hurricane Center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Posted 588 days ago

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PriyaM 		It depends on how long it's over water. The longer it is, the stronger it gets. The stronger it gets the more northward it will move.

Posted 588 days ago

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GonsalvezM 		Tropical Storm Alex should become a Hurricane once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico as a Cat.1 and picks up heat energy from the very warm waters there (88F). At the moment it is forecast to cross over the Yucatan peninsula and enter the lower Gulf of Mexico Sunday afternoon. Its trajectory is pointing it towards Central Mexico far south oh Houston, Texas but as we all know Hurricanes can change direction. I believe that the storm has a 5% chance of making landfall over the Galveston/Houston area. However you may experience heavy rainfall and as the Hurricane moves further north they do have tendency to be pushed East by the Sub Tropical Jet Stream.
I believe that it has the potential to become at least a Cat. 3 Hurricane.

Posted 588 days ago

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SultanE 		There is a ridge rebuilding that should prevent a lot of northern movement of this storm. While there is a chance that southern Texas may get hit, Mexico is the area that will most likely be impacted. You will see quite a bit of vacillation with the ATCF and the GFDL/HWRF models over the next couple of days

. Also keep in mind, each of these models develop multiple scenarios and tracks from each run. You are likely only seeing the track that that particular forecaster thinks is more likely. Below is an example of what I mean. It is from the 12z model runs.

ATCF: http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/18zatcfearlyinvest1.gif

Posted 588 days ago

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